Analisis Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Upah Minimum, dan Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran melalui Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Sumatera Utara
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65244/jggeconomic.v2i3.1195Keywords:
Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka, Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Upah Minimum Provinsi, Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja, Pertumbuhan EkonomiAbstract
Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) masih menjadi salah satu persoalan ketenagakerjaan di Sumatera Utara. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah, upah minimum provinsi (UMP), dan tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja (TPAK) terhadap TPT dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai variabel intervening. Penelitian menggunakan data runtun waktu tahunan periode 2009–2024 dengan 16 observasi. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan analisis jalur dengan dua sub struktur melalui metode ordinary least squares (OLS), sedangkan efek tidak langsung diuji menggunakan uji Sobel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa UMP berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan pengeluaran pemerintah dan TPAK tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Pengeluaran pemerintah, UMP, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap TPT, sedangkan TPAK tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Uji Sobel menunjukkan bahwa hanya efek tidak langsung UMP terhadap TPT melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi yang signifikan (z = 2,711; p = 0,0067). Namun, efek tidak langsung tersebut bertanda positif dan berlawanan dengan efek langsungnya, sehingga menunjukkan mediasi tidak konsisten. Pengeluaran pemerintah dan TPAK tidak memiliki efek tidak langsung yang signifikan. Secara keseluruhan, TPT di Sumatera Utara lebih berkaitan dengan pengaruh langsung dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan dengan mekanisme mediasi.
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